London – 18 June 2026: Business confidence across the global derivatives industry reached its highest level since Q1 2025 in the second quarter of 2026, driven by record trading volumes fuelled by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to the latest SGX Global Market Sentiment Index Report produced by Acuiti in association with SGX Group.
The index rose to 79 in Q2 2026, up from 75 in Q1, marking the third consecutive quarterly increase and the strongest reading in five quarters.
The SGX Global Market Sentiment Index is a quarterly benchmark of business confidence across the global derivatives industry, based on a survey of senior executives in Acuiti’s global network, covering proprietary trading, asset management, hedge funds, clearing firms and sell-side execution desks.
Global derivatives volumes soared in Q1 2026, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz driving energy volumes to 624 million contracts in March and interest rate derivatives surging to over 1.1 billion contracts as participants repositioned around inflation concerns. Equity derivatives exceeded 10.6 billion contracts in January 2026.
The overall reading of 79 masks a sharp divergence across market segments. Sell-side execution desks, sell-side clearing firms and proprietary trading firms all posted record confidence levels – reaching 85, 87 and 87, respectively – as elevated client trading activity and geopolitical volatility drove exceptional revenues for firms whose income is tied to transaction volumes.
However, hedge fund confidence fell to 74 from 76 in Q1, while asset manager sentiment, though recovering to 60, remained the weakest segment in the survey. Firms exposed to directional risk faced a more challenging environment, with the sharp and unpredictable nature of geopolitical-driven market moves proving difficult to exploit. Several major multi-strategy hedge funds were reported to have suffered significant losses during the period.
Ross Lancaster, head of research at Acuiti, says: “For firms who are typically exposed to volumes the first half of 2026 has been a period of significant opportunity. Record volumes across energy, rates and equities have translated directly into record revenues and record confidence. But for firms that take and manage directional positions, the speed and unpredictability of the moves that the market saw in March and April has been exceptionally challenging.”
Confidence rose across all regions for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting that the drivers of market performance – volatility, volumes and geopolitical disruption – were global in nature.
This quarter’s report also examines institutional engagement with prediction markets, finding the sector at an early but meaningful inflection point. Nine percent of institutional derivatives participants are now actively trading prediction markets, with a further 35% considering entry. Proprietary trading firms are the most engaged, with 13% already active and 31% considering participation.
Regulatory uncertainty remains the primary barrier to broader participation, cited by 57% of respondents. CFTC regulatory approvals and clarity were identified by 56% as the single most important catalyst for mainstream institutional adoption, followed by established derivatives exchanges launching a full prediction market product suite.
Download the full report here: https://www.acuiti.io/the-sgx-global-market-sentiment-report-q2-2026/
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About Acuiti
Acuiti is a management intelligence platform that provides senior professionals in the derivatives industry with high-value insights into industry-wide performance and operations. Our platform allows an exclusive network of senior industry executives to share and source information on day-to-day challenges, giving their management teams greater transparency and analysis to make informed decisions and benchmark performance. Network members include senior executives at banks, non-bank FCMs, brokers, proprietary trading firms, hedge funds, and asset managers.
About Singapore Exchange (SGX Group)
SGX Group seeks to serve as the world’s most trusted and efficient international marketplace, operating equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets to the highest regulatory standards. As one ecosystem with global relevance and influence, we offer multiple growth avenues to our stakeholders through listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository, data and index services. We are committed to lead on climate action by developing a world-class transition financing and trading hub through SGX FIRST (Future in Reshaping Sustainability Together), our multi-asset sustainability platform. Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, we are globally recognised for our risk-management and clearing capabilities. Find out more at www.sgxgroup.com.